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Oviedo 2–1 Granada

← Segunda División 2017 · Sun, Mar 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Damaso Arcediano Monescillo, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Oviedo win38%2.52
Draw31%3.11
Granada win30%3.20

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

35'🟨Sergio Peña · Granada
40'⚽Pierre Kunde · Granada
42'🟨Chico · Granada
45'⚽Juan Forlin · Oviedo
61'🟨Ángel Montoro · Granada
63'⚽Steven Prieto · Oviedo
77'🟨Mossa · Oviedo
89'🟨McDonald Mariga · Oviedo
90'🟨Rey Manaj · Granada
90'🟨Víctor Díaz · Granada
90'🟥Darwin Machís · Granada

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
8Shots10
3On target2
5Corners3
16Fouls16
2Yellow cards5
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricOviedoGranada
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.24
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.270.36
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.27
box share (last 5)0.610.65
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days260.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueJorge Garbajosa
260.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.913.03
elo1499.781458.84
elo momentum (last 5)-37.886.69
eye test v1-1.110.41
eye trend v10.110.84
first sub minute (last 10)67.0061.90
form points (last 5)2.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.800.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.400.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.820.88
keeper form v10.610.61
league points46.0049.00
league rank10.006.00
matches since blank1.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.002.00
matches since win5.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)68.6074.80
possession avg (last 5)49.8050.80
rest days8.888.08
scorer concentration0.170.29
season ppg1.531.63
skill v1-0.83-0.12
sot against avg (last 5)3.802.60
sot for avg (last 10)2.704.10
sot for avg (last 3)2.677.33
sot for avg (last 5)2.405.20
state index-0.53-0.29
sterile dominance v10.19-0.73
threat rate (last 10)0.200.30
threat rate (last 3)0.200.38
threat rate (last 5)0.170.33
venue ppg (last 5)2.200.60