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Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 3–2 Reus

← Segunda División 2017 · Sun, Mar 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Luis Mario Milla Alvendiz

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win64%1.51
Draw23%4.16
Reus win12%7.78

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

32'⚽Raúl de Tomás · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid
34'⚽Jesus Olmo · Reus
40'🟨David Querol · Reus
45'⚽Raúl de Tomás · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid
56'⚽Jorge Miramón · Reus
66'🟨Gus Ledes · Reus
89'🟨Fran Beltrán · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid
89'⚽Raúl de Tomás · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid
90'🟨Bebé · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1
15Shots7
6On target4
5Corners2
8Fouls16
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRayo Vallecano de MadridReus
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.28
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.30
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.29
box share (last 5)0.530.45
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days410.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio de Vallecas
260.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.692.08
elo1557.401440.40
elo momentum (last 5)41.229.61
eye test v10.32-0.33
eye trend v1-0.250.16
first sub minute (last 10)59.4063.80
form points (last 5)13.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.400.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.600.40
goals for avg (last 5)2.001.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.411.14
keeper form v10.710.79
league points54.0038.00
league rank3.0014.00
matches since blank7.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.8077.40
possession avg (last 5)50.0054.20
rest days7.926.83
scorer concentration0.280.25
season ppg1.801.27
skill v10.240.38
sot against avg (last 5)4.402.00
sot for avg (last 10)5.603.50
sot for avg (last 3)4.673.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.803.80
state index0.81-0.26
sterile dominance v1-0.180.50
threat rate (last 10)0.290.22
threat rate (last 3)0.270.21
threat rate (last 5)0.280.21
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.80