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CA Osasuna 1–2 Zaragoza

← Segunda División 2017 · Sat, Mar 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Santiago Varon Aceiton

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
CA Osasuna win43%2.24
Draw31%3.10
Zaragoza win25%3.82

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

61'⚽Borja Iglesias · Zaragoza
65'🟨Simone Grippo · Zaragoza
73'🟨Jorge Pombo · Zaragoza
81'⚽Borja Iglesias · Zaragoza
85'🟨Daniel Lasure · Zaragoza
87'🟨Lillo Castellano · CA Osasuna
89'🟨Oliver Buff · Zaragoza
90'🟨Oier · CA Osasuna
90'⚽Unai García · CA Osasuna

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
23Shots9
10On target3
12Corners3
10Fouls17
2Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCA OsasunaZaragoza
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.43
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.44
box share (last 5)0.490.72
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days289.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio El Sadar
259.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.872.72
elo1460.461494.97
elo momentum (last 5)10.6960.26
eye test v1-1.080.64
eye trend v1-0.190.09
first sub minute (last 10)60.3065.50
form points (last 5)8.0015.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.001.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.400.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.402.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.700.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
keeper form v10.790.80
league points47.0046.00
league rank6.007.00
matches since blank0.0011.00
matches since clean sheet0.003.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)68.6076.20
possession avg (last 5)54.2051.60
rest days5.926.17
scorer concentration0.190.27
season ppg1.571.53
skill v1-0.530.08
sot against avg (last 5)2.003.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.204.50
sot for avg (last 3)2.005.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.405.80
state index-0.070.65
sterile dominance v10.72-0.09
threat rate (last 10)0.190.26
threat rate (last 3)0.110.22
threat rate (last 5)0.130.26
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.40