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Albacete 0–0 CA Osasuna

← Segunda División 2017 · Sun, Mar 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jorge Figueroa Vazquez, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Albacete win40%2.40
Draw34%2.85
CA Osasuna win26%3.80

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

2'🟨Lucas Torró · CA Osasuna
37'🟨Jon Erice · Albacete
39'🟨Esteban Saveljich · Albacete
42'🟨Nicolás Gorosito · Albacete
42'🟨Oier · CA Osasuna
43'🟨Esteban Saveljich · Albacete
43'🟥Esteban Saveljich · Albacete
44'🟨Álvaro Arroyo · Albacete
52'🟨Tano Bonnin · CA Osasuna
57'🟨Mariano Bittolo · Albacete

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
4Shots5
1On target1
2Corners1
16Fouls10
6Yellow cards3
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlbaceteCA Osasuna
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.410.36
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.290.39
box share (last 5)0.560.57
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days161.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueCarlos Belmonte
283.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.982.87
elo1474.871458.29
elo momentum (last 5)10.508.72
eye test v1-0.86-0.68
eye trend v10.27-0.26
first sub minute (last 10)64.9060.30
form points (last 5)8.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.200.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.600.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.800.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.821.25
keeper form v10.720.74
league points39.0046.00
league rank13.007.00
matches since blank2.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)54.2068.20
possession avg (last 5)43.6049.80
rest days7.258.00
scorer concentration0.290.19
season ppg1.341.59
skill v1-2.74-0.87
sot against avg (last 5)2.803.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.603.70
sot for avg (last 3)4.672.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.603.20
state index0.08-0.01
sterile dominance v1-1.560.03
threat rate (last 10)0.280.21
threat rate (last 3)0.260.15
threat rate (last 5)0.270.19
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.80