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Zaragoza 3–1 Lorca FC

← Segunda División 2017 · Sun, Mar 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Alvaro Moreno Aragon

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Zaragoza win67%1.45
Draw20%4.81
Lorca FC win13%7.56

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

18'⚽Giorgi Papunashvili · Zaragoza
21'⚽Borja Iglesias · Zaragoza
56'⚽Alberto Noguera · Lorca FC
59'⚽Bruno Perone · Zaragoza
65'🟨Federico Bikoro · Lorca FC
76'🟨Federico Bikoro · Lorca FC
76'🟥Federico Bikoro · Lorca FC

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
13Shots7
5On target2
5Corners3
9Fouls11
0Yellow cards2
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricZaragozaLorca FC
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.490.26
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.400.19
box share (last 5)0.580.59
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days253.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueLa Romareda
222.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.062.31
elo1487.671350.46
elo momentum (last 5)54.62-22.06
eye test v10.19-1.31
eye trend v10.29-0.06
first sub minute (last 10)61.5062.10
form points (last 5)13.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.20-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.800.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.530.79
keeper form v10.780.63
league points43.0018.00
league rank12.0021.00
matches since blank10.001.00
matches since clean sheet2.001.00
matches since win0.0013.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.0067.60
possession avg (last 5)47.0045.60
rest days7.837.00
scorer concentration0.270.18
season ppg1.480.62
skill v1-0.46-1.22
sot against avg (last 5)4.204.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.402.70
sot for avg (last 3)5.672.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.002.00
state index0.76-1.59
sterile dominance v1-0.43-0.53
threat rate (last 10)0.250.24
threat rate (last 3)0.220.20
threat rate (last 5)0.260.23
venue ppg (last 5)2.600.20