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Tenerife 3–1 Lugo

← Segunda División 2017 · Mon, Feb 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Alvaro Moreno Aragon

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Tenerife win58%1.68
Draw25%3.85
Lugo win17%5.75

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

13'🟨Raul Camara · Tenerife
15'⚽Fede Vico · Lugo
20'🟨Serge Leuko · Lugo
21'⚽ (pen)Samuele Longo · Tenerife
23'⚽Juan Villar · Tenerife
29'🟨Alberto Jiménez · Tenerife
45'🟨Ramon Azeez · Lugo
59'🟨Nicolás Albarracín · Lugo
60'⚽Alex Mula · Tenerife
64'🟨Carlos Ruiz · Tenerife

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1
18Shots12
8On target2
5Corners8
11Fouls11
3Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricTenerifeLugo
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.370.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.38
box share (last 5)0.630.62
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days25.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueHeliodoro Rodríguez López
240.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.753.16
elo1474.501457.86
elo momentum (last 5)-19.44-11.67
eye test v10.49-0.12
eye trend v10.44-0.14
first sub minute (last 10)47.7054.80
form points (last 5)5.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.581.10
keeper form v10.610.66
league points34.0041.00
league rank15.0010.00
matches since blank3.001.00
matches since clean sheet3.005.00
matches since win1.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)71.2077.80
possession avg (last 5)47.2053.80
rest days9.088.00
scorer concentration0.280.19
season ppg1.261.52
skill v1-0.740.39
sot against avg (last 5)3.805.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.904.40
sot for avg (last 3)6.334.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.404.00
state index-0.22-0.54
sterile dominance v1-1.230.54
threat rate (last 10)0.290.24
threat rate (last 3)0.400.22
threat rate (last 5)0.350.20
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.80