⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Cordoba 2–1 Valladolid

← Segunda División 2017 · Sun, Feb 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Eduardo Prieto Iglesias, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cordoba win39%2.50
Valladolid win33%2.91
Draw28%3.48

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

21'🟨Edu Ramos · Cordoba
41'🟨Toni Martínez · Valladolid
45'🟨Sergio Aguza · Cordoba
45'⚽Javi Moyano · Valladolid
49'🟨Jordi Masip · Valladolid
54'🟨Borja · Valladolid
58'🟨Javi Moyano · Valladolid
61'🟥Luismi · Valladolid
73'⚽Saša Jovanović · Cordoba
87'⚽Sergi Guardiola · Cordoba

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
22Shots7
8On target3
6Corners3
13Fouls19
2Yellow cards4
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCordobaValladolid
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.230.46
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.280.35
box share (last 5)0.640.75
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days24.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Nuevo Arcángel
239.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.131.83
elo1340.311494.32
elo momentum (last 5)-23.7916.44
eye test v1-0.50-0.33
eye trend v1-0.230.29
first sub minute (last 10)46.3056.10
form points (last 5)3.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.200.40
goals against avg (last 5)2.001.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.491.25
keeper form v10.660.69
league points19.0042.00
league rank20.009.00
matches since blank3.001.00
matches since clean sheet4.003.00
matches since win4.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.0075.40
possession avg (last 5)50.2052.20
rest days6.838.63
scorer concentration0.440.49
season ppg0.701.56
skill v1-0.350.04
sot against avg (last 5)5.603.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.603.80
sot for avg (last 3)3.334.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.404.00
state index-1.110.06
sterile dominance v1-0.140.43
threat rate (last 10)0.250.19
threat rate (last 3)0.280.19
threat rate (last 5)0.240.19
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.80