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Almeria 2–1 Cultural Leonesa

← Segunda División 2017 · Sat, Feb 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Ruben Eiriz Mata, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Almeria win42%2.32
Draw29%3.32
Cultural Leonesa win29%3.36

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

13'🟨Sulayman Marreh · Almeria
14'🟨Iban Salvador · Cultural Leonesa
21'⚽Gaspar Panadero · Almeria
42'🟨Jorge Palatsí Gallego · Cultural Leonesa
42'🟨Iza Carcelén · Cultural Leonesa
44'⚽ (pen)Rubén Alcaraz · Almeria
61'⚽Samuel Delgado · Cultural Leonesa
84'🟨David García · Cultural Leonesa
90'🟨Nano · Almeria

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
9Shots14
3On target4
4Corners6
15Fouls18
2Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlmeriaCultural Leonesa
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.290.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.270.42
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.220.42
box share (last 5)0.460.48
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days360.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio del Mediterráneo
664.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.582.44
elo1421.711427.91
elo momentum (last 5)12.57-23.28
eye test v1-1.27-0.18
eye trend v10.210.35
first sub minute (last 10)54.1053.40
form points (last 5)7.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.40-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.802.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.990.84
keeper form v10.730.60
league points33.0029.00
league rank17.0019.00
matches since blank1.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.008.00
matches since win0.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)69.4081.00
possession avg (last 5)44.0054.00
rest days6.256.00
scorer concentration0.290.26
season ppg1.221.07
skill v1-1.150.74
sot against avg (last 5)2.605.40
sot for avg (last 10)2.603.40
sot for avg (last 3)3.004.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.203.80
state index-0.11-0.93
sterile dominance v1-0.420.99
threat rate (last 10)0.210.19
threat rate (last 3)0.210.18
threat rate (last 5)0.210.17
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.00