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Lugo 1–2 Barcelona B

← Segunda División 2017 · Sun, Feb 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Adrian Cordero Vega, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Lugo win46%2.13
Draw29%3.36
Barcelona B win26%3.80

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

2'🟨Luis Muñoz · Lugo
10'🟨David Costas · Barcelona B
17'⚽Chuli · Lugo
37'🟨Fernando Seoane · Lugo
50'⚽Matías Nahuel · Barcelona B
61'🟨Sergi Palencia · Barcelona B
68'🟨Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta · Barcelona B
70'⚽Matías Nahuel · Barcelona B
74'🟨Álvaro Lemos · Lugo
90'🟨Martin Hongla · Barcelona B

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
11Shots12
4On target6
3Corners2
16Fouls8
3Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLugoBarcelona B
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.370.30
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.420.39
box share (last 5)0.630.54
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days232.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAnxo Carro
964.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.621.89
elo1469.871459.05
elo momentum (last 5)11.4220.47
eye test v10.00-0.26
eye trend v1-0.19-0.03
first sub minute (last 10)56.3061.40
form points (last 5)8.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.200.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.101.16
keeper form v10.650.73
league points41.0030.00
league rank9.0018.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet4.002.00
matches since win3.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.0079.60
possession avg (last 5)52.8050.00
rest days6.988.08
scorer concentration0.190.25
season ppg1.581.15
skill v10.140.32
sot against avg (last 5)4.602.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.303.70
sot for avg (last 3)3.673.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.403.60
state index-0.020.10
sterile dominance v10.400.43
threat rate (last 10)0.230.20
threat rate (last 3)0.180.22
threat rate (last 5)0.210.20
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.40