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Cadiz 2–1 Oviedo

← Segunda División 2017 · Sat, Feb 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Alexis Carlos Pulido Santana, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cadiz win37%2.61
Draw34%2.88
Oviedo win29%3.34

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

29'🟨Aaron Ñiguez · Oviedo
34'🟨Álvaro García · Cadiz
35'🟥David Rocha · Oviedo
40'🟨Rafidine Abdullah · Cadiz
55'🟨Fausto Tienza · Cadiz
55'⚽Miguel Linares · Oviedo
62'🟨Juan Forlin · Oviedo
67'🟨Christian Fernández · Oviedo
71'🟨Mossa · Oviedo
73'⚽Alberto Perea · Cadiz
80'⚽Servando · Cadiz

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
10Shots4
6On target2
9Corners2
19Fouls18
3Yellow cards4
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCadizOviedo
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.430.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.470.28
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.440.30
box share (last 5)0.530.64
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days680.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Ramon de Carranza
224.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)0.922.77
elo1546.951537.66
elo momentum (last 5)-5.6415.92
eye test v1-0.80-0.75
eye trend v1-0.020.01
first sub minute (last 10)53.7069.60
form points (last 5)8.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.400.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.401.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.950.95
keeper form v10.890.76
league points44.0044.00
league rank2.003.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.001.00
matches since win3.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)63.2067.40
possession avg (last 5)41.0048.80
rest days7.086.00
scorer concentration0.260.18
season ppg1.761.76
skill v1-2.00-1.03
sot against avg (last 5)4.402.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.503.60
sot for avg (last 3)3.333.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.203.00
state index0.170.31
sterile dominance v1-0.81-0.42
threat rate (last 10)0.220.25
threat rate (last 3)0.190.27
threat rate (last 5)0.200.23
venue ppg (last 5)2.601.80