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Lugo 1–1 Albacete

← Segunda División 2017 · Sun, Feb 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Gorka Sagues Oscoz, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Lugo win45%2.18
Draw30%3.25
Albacete win26%3.79

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

14'🟨Jon Erice · Albacete
45'🟨Chus Herrero · Albacete
46'🟨Roman Zozulya · Albacete
48'🟨Fede Vico · Lugo
51'🟨Ramon Azeez · Lugo
58'⚽Jaime Romero · Lugo
62'⚽Dani Rodríguez · Albacete
63'🟨Carlos Delgado · Albacete
78'🟨Dani Rodríguez · Albacete
90'🟨Mariano Bittolo · Albacete

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
10Shots17
5On target4
8Corners7
13Fouls18
2Yellow cards6
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLugoAlbacete
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.480.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.420.31
box share (last 5)0.640.48
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days218.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAnxo Carro
126.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.552.58
elo1486.751464.37
elo momentum (last 5)7.249.95
eye test v10.01-0.60
eye trend v10.12-0.14
first sub minute (last 10)56.7066.60
form points (last 5)7.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.200.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.060.88
keeper form v10.630.63
league points40.0031.00
league rank6.0012.00
matches since blank3.001.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.4060.40
possession avg (last 5)51.8038.80
rest days7.657.67
scorer concentration0.200.33
season ppg1.671.29
skill v10.00-2.44
sot against avg (last 5)3.402.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.304.00
sot for avg (last 3)4.673.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.403.60
state index0.05-0.10
sterile dominance v10.24-1.83
threat rate (last 10)0.230.32
threat rate (last 3)0.200.30
threat rate (last 5)0.220.30
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.00