← Segunda División 2017 · Sat, Feb 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: David Perez Pallas, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lorca FC win | 38% | 2.59 |
| Almeria win | 32% | 3.07 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.15 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ (pen) | Javier Muñoz · Lorca FC |
| 15' | 🟨 | Carlos Pomares · Lorca FC |
| 17' | 🟨 | Nano · Almeria |
| 48' | ⚽ | Pablo Caballero · Almeria |
| 52' | 🟨 | Alberto Noguera · Lorca FC |
| 67' | 🟨 | Javier Muñoz · Lorca FC |
| 73' | 🟨 | Marco Motta · Almeria |
| 76' | ⚽ | Rubén Alcaraz · Almeria |
| 87' | 🟨 | Cristian Nasuti · Lorca FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tropi · Lorca FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Angel Trujillo · Almeria |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 7 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 22 | Fouls | 19 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lorca FC | Almeria |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.45 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| venue | Estadio Francisco Artes Carrasco |
| coach days | 186.00 | 339.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.66 | 2.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1322.79 | 1426.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -32.38 | -8.59 |
| eye test v1 | -0.67 | -1.40 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.19 | -0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.10 | 52.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.75 |
| league points | 16.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 64.00 | 68.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 36.60 | 43.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.62 | 1.15 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.20 | -4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 8.40 |
| skill v1 | -2.22 | -1.37 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.00 |
| squad age | 28.06 | 26.37 |
| state index | -1.61 | -0.73 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.41 | -0.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |