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Huesca 1–0 CA Osasuna

← Segunda División 2017 · Sun, Jan 28, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Ruben Eiriz Mata, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Huesca win49%1.99
Draw29%3.36
CA Osasuna win22%4.34

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

4'🟨Borja Lasso · CA Osasuna
28'⚽Álex Gallar · Huesca
35'🟨Carlos Clerc · CA Osasuna
37'🟨Lucas Torró · CA Osasuna
39'🟨Lluis Sastre · Huesca
70'🟨Rajko Brežančić · Huesca
75'🟨Fran Mérida · CA Osasuna
86'🟨Carlos Clerc · CA Osasuna
86'🟥Carlos Clerc · CA Osasuna

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
11Shots8
7On target2
7Corners3
15Fouls12
2Yellow cards5
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHuescaCA Osasuna
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.29
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.40
box share (last 5)0.560.71
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days211.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEl Alcoraz
241.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.402.91
elo1579.491454.71
elo momentum (last 5)28.6424.54
eye test v10.810.29
eye trend v1-0.230.22
first sub minute (last 10)63.0048.00
form points (last 5)13.0012.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.200.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.00
goals for avg (last 5)2.201.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.051.25
keeper form v10.730.57
league points46.0038.00
league rank1.006.00
matches since blank7.001.00
matches since clean sheet4.002.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.8074.20
possession avg (last 5)55.4050.60
rest days7.927.08
scorer concentration0.300.21
season ppg2.001.65
skill v10.40-0.20
sot against avg (last 5)3.003.00
sot for avg (last 10)5.203.80
sot for avg (last 3)5.004.33
sot for avg (last 5)6.005.20
state index0.800.15
sterile dominance v1-0.23-0.19
threat rate (last 10)0.290.21
threat rate (last 3)0.230.27
threat rate (last 5)0.310.26
venue ppg (last 5)2.601.80