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Cadiz 1–1 Lugo

← Segunda División 2017 · Sat, Jan 27, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Ocon Arraiz, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cadiz win46%2.13
Draw31%3.14
Lugo win23%4.14

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

30'🟨Rafidine Abdullah · Cadiz
53'⚽Eugeni Valderrama · Cadiz
61'🟨Jon Ander Garrido · Cadiz
61'🟨Serge Leuko · Lugo
87'⚽Cristian Herrera · Lugo
89'🟨Jon Ander Garrido · Cadiz
89'🟥Jon Ander Garrido · Cadiz
90'🟨Álvaro García · Cadiz

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
9Shots7
3On target3
5Corners2
14Fouls13
4Yellow cards1
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCadizLugo
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.41
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.400.37
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.600.66
cards avg (last 5)1.602.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Ramon de Carranza
coach days666.00210.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.150.10
corner diff avg (last 5)0.801.00
corners against avg (last 5)3.604.20
corners for avg (last 5)4.405.20
corners volatility (last 10)0.953.75
defensive leak (last 5)0.060.14
dominance (last 5)0.440.51
elo1587.591500.46
elo momentum (last 5)3.4820.59
eye test v1-0.49-0.09
eye trend v1-0.270.16
first sub minute (last 10)54.0055.70
form points (last 5)10.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.800.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.031.17
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.90
ht lead rate (last 20)0.450.25
keeper form v10.900.61
league points46.0043.00
league rank2.006.00
matches since blank0.003.00
matches since clean sheet1.002.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)64.2074.20
possession avg (last 5)37.0051.60
rest days6.006.81
scorer concentration0.270.21
season ppg1.841.65
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.800.20
shots for avg (last 5)9.4011.40
skill v1-2.17-0.13
sot against avg (last 5)4.203.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.904.60
sot for avg (last 3)3.005.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.804.20
squad age26.4426.28
state index0.500.08
sterile dominance v1-1.460.04
threat rate (last 10)0.260.24
threat rate (last 3)0.230.26
threat rate (last 5)0.260.23
venue ppg (last 5)3.001.00