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Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 5–1 Lorca FC

← Segunda División 2017 · Sat, Jan 27, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Aitor Gorostegui Fernandez Orte, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win68%1.43
Draw20%4.84
Lorca FC win12%8.09

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

12'⚽Raúl de Tomás · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid
22'⚽Raúl de Tomás · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid
28'🟨Tropi · Lorca FC
48'⚽Raúl de Tomás · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid
76'⚽Unai López · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid
83'⚽ (og)Dorado · Lorca FC
90'⚽Javi Guerra · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
25Shots8
13On target3
7Corners1
10Fouls13
0Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRayo Vallecano de MadridLorca FC
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.46
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.33
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.15
box share (last 5)0.640.62
cards avg (last 5)3.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio de Vallecas
4.20
coach days360.00179.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.12
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.40-2.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.806.40
corners for avg (last 5)3.403.60
corners volatility (last 10)3.691.34
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.21
dominance (last 5)0.540.44
elo1537.611329.39
elo momentum (last 5)0.40-33.86
eye test v10.27-0.77
eye trend v1-0.300.36
first sub minute (last 10)54.2062.50
form points (last 5)8.000.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.402.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.700.94
h2 goals (last 10)1.200.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.20
keeper form v10.590.55
league points39.0016.00
league rank9.0022.00
matches since blank0.004.00
matches since clean sheet0.008.00
matches since win3.008.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.8065.20
possession avg (last 5)55.2040.20
rest days6.007.00
scorer concentration0.180.19
season ppg1.560.64
shot diff avg (last 5)3.60-3.00
shots for avg (last 5)14.2010.00
skill v10.59-1.85
sot against avg (last 5)2.205.20
sot for avg (last 10)5.303.60
sot for avg (last 3)4.334.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.603.00
squad age26.6926.77
state index0.08-1.54
sterile dominance v10.32-1.21
threat rate (last 10)0.260.22
threat rate (last 3)0.270.27
threat rate (last 5)0.250.26
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.00