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Zaragoza 1–0 Cordoba

← Segunda División 2017 · Fri, Jan 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Gorka Sagues Oscoz, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Zaragoza win51%1.92
Draw27%3.63
Cordoba win23%4.30

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

19'⚽Jorge Pombo · Zaragoza
26'🟨José Fernández · Cordoba
36'🟨João Afonso · Cordoba
41'🟨Diogo Verdasca · Zaragoza

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
13Shots12
5On target4
7Corners7
14Fouls10
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricZaragozaCordoba
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.270.32
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.260.37
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.10
box share (last 5)0.450.63
cards avg (last 5)2.801.00
coach days209.0056.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.11
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueLa Romareda
corner diff avg (last 5)
-1.00
-2.40
corners against avg (last 5)5.004.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.002.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.852.15
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.13
dominance (last 5)0.530.59
elo1456.401394.18
elo momentum (last 5)-9.4015.40
eye test v1-0.480.44
eye trend v10.01-0.17
first sub minute (last 10)57.4049.20
form points (last 5)5.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.002.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.671.43
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.15
keeper form v10.640.69
league points31.0020.00
league rank14.0021.00
matches since blank4.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.2082.00
possession avg (last 5)57.0061.20
rest days7.006.00
scorer concentration0.240.46
season ppg1.240.80
shot diff avg (last 5)1.204.00
shots for avg (last 5)11.8013.40
skill v10.651.33
sot against avg (last 5)3.404.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.704.60
sot for avg (last 3)3.334.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.005.00
squad age25.9825.91
state index-0.20-0.28
sterile dominance v10.600.97
threat rate (last 10)0.240.24
threat rate (last 3)0.250.22
threat rate (last 5)0.220.23
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.00