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CA Osasuna 2–1 Cultural Leonesa

← Segunda División 2017 · Sun, Jan 21, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Alvaro Moreno Aragon

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
CA Osasuna win59%1.65
Draw25%3.81
Cultural Leonesa win16%6.21

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

45'⚽Fran Mérida · CA Osasuna
47'🟨David Rodriguez · CA Osasuna
59'⚽Borja Lasso · CA Osasuna
63'🟨Gianni Zuiverloon · Cultural Leonesa
67'⚽Josep Señé · Cultural Leonesa
87'🟨Carlos Clerc · CA Osasuna
89'🟨Yosuke Ideguchi · Cultural Leonesa

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
10Shots8
3On target3
4Corners4
18Fouls20
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCA OsasunaCultural Leonesa
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.23
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.19
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.450.22
box share (last 5)0.750.51
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days234.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio El Sadar
630.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.972.60
elo1446.281451.19
elo momentum (last 5)15.01-5.74
eye test v10.44-0.37
eye trend v10.56-0.05
first sub minute (last 10)47.0056.10
form points (last 5)10.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.40-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.290.82
keeper form v10.630.47
league points35.0026.00
league rank8.0016.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet1.003.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)71.6084.40
possession avg (last 5)52.2063.40
rest days2.886.92
scorer concentration0.230.24
season ppg1.591.18
skill v1-0.361.73
sot against avg (last 5)2.804.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.603.20
sot for avg (last 3)5.332.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.603.00
state index-0.16-0.44
sterile dominance v1-0.141.36
threat rate (last 10)0.210.23
threat rate (last 3)0.270.20
threat rate (last 5)0.250.21
venue ppg (last 5)1.000.40