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Granada 2–1 Zaragoza

← Segunda División 2017 · Fri, Jan 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Damaso Arcediano Monescillo, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Granada win59%1.65
Draw26%3.79
Zaragoza win16%6.17

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

12'⚽Simone Grippo · Zaragoza
16'⚽Adrian Ramos · Granada
39'⚽Álex Martínez · Granada
49'🟨Íñigo Eguaras · Zaragoza
53'🟨Alberto Martín · Granada
55'🟨Daniel Lasure · Zaragoza
73'🟨Giorgi Papunashvili · Zaragoza
85'🟨Simone Grippo · Zaragoza

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1
12Shots12
4On target5
8Corners2
12Fouls13
1Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGranadaZaragoza
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.180.26
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.250.24
box share (last 5)0.530.48
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days202.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueNuevo Los Cármenes
202.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.472.78
elo1450.201433.98
elo momentum (last 5)4.22-9.29
eye test v1-0.06-0.80
eye trend v1-0.29-0.09
first sub minute (last 10)57.3055.40
form points (last 5)7.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.050.99
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
keeper form v10.620.66
league points34.0027.00
league rank8.0014.00
matches since blank1.003.00
matches since clean sheet3.000.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)71.4077.60
possession avg (last 5)58.6055.00
rest days5.136.02
scorer concentration0.280.25
season ppg1.551.23
skill v10.050.45
sot against avg (last 5)2.403.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.603.60
sot for avg (last 3)3.333.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.002.40
state index-0.06-0.46
sterile dominance v1-0.110.60
threat rate (last 10)0.290.23
threat rate (last 3)0.310.22
threat rate (last 5)0.290.21
venue ppg (last 5)2.400.80