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Cultural Leonesa 2–1 Lorca FC

← Segunda División 2017 · Sun, Jan 14, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Adrian Cordero Vega, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cultural Leonesa win45%2.18
Draw32%3.04
Lorca FC win24%4.13

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

33'🟨Aly Mallé · Lorca FC
43'🟨Iván Garrido · Cultural Leonesa
43'🟨Carlos Peña · Lorca FC
58'⚽ (pen)Javier Muñoz · Lorca FC
60'🟨Rodri · Cultural Leonesa
64'🟨Markus Holgersson · Lorca FC
69'⚽Josep Señé · Cultural Leonesa
77'🟨Yeray Gonzalez · Cultural Leonesa
80'🟨— · Cultural Leonesa
88'⚽Sergio Marcos · Cultural Leonesa
90'🟨Javier Muñoz · Lorca FC
90'🟨Abel · Lorca FC

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
15Shots8
5On target2
7Corners2
8Fouls12
4Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCultural LeonesaLorca FC
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.220.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.180.24
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.220.30
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.530.60
cards avg (last 5)1.203.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Reino de Leon
coach days623.00166.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d1.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.04
corner diff avg (last 5)0.40-0.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.805.40
corners for avg (last 5)5.204.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.581.49
defensive leak (last 5)0.150.21
dominance (last 5)0.500.49
elo1444.121340.02
elo momentum (last 5)-10.97-38.38
eye test v1-0.51-0.71
eye trend v10.12-0.24
first sub minute (last 10)57.9058.00
form points (last 5)5.000.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.60-1.40
goals against avg (last 5)2.002.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.400.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.880.88
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.15
keeper form v10.710.55
league points26.0016.00
league rank19.0022.00
matches since blank1.002.00
matches since clean sheet2.006.00
matches since win2.006.00
pass acc avg (last 5)82.8071.60
possession avg (last 5)60.4055.00
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.260.21
season ppg1.130.70
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.60-0.40
shots for avg (last 5)12.2010.20
skill v11.36-0.17
sot against avg (last 5)5.004.80
sot for avg (last 10)2.803.90
sot for avg (last 3)2.672.67
sot for avg (last 5)2.803.00
squad age25.3528.23
state index-0.37-1.31
sterile dominance v11.120.40
threat rate (last 10)0.220.21
threat rate (last 3)0.220.24
threat rate (last 5)0.210.20
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.60