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Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 2–2 Oviedo

← Segunda División 2017 · Fri, Jan 12, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: David Perez Pallas, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win51%1.91
Draw29%3.38
Oviedo win20%4.88

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

4'🟨Juan Forlin · Oviedo
21'🟨Aaron Ñiguez · Oviedo
24'⚽Alejandro Domínguez · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid
40'⚽Christian Fernández · Oviedo
49'⚽Carlos Hernández · Oviedo
50'🟨Dorado · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid
57'🟨Baiano · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid
65'🟨Manucho · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid
72'🟥Emiliano Velazquez · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid
77'🟨Carlos Hernández · Oviedo
81'🟨Christian Fernández · Oviedo
82'⚽ (pen)Óscar Trejo · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid
90'🟨Óscar Trejo · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid
90'🟨Mossa · Oviedo

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
9Shots11
4On target2
1Corners6
15Fouls17
4Yellow cards5
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRayo Vallecano de MadridOviedo
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.46
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.420.42
box share (last 5)0.640.46
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days345.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio de Vallecas
195.00
congestion 21d1.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.863.65
elo1507.551524.76
elo momentum (last 5)7.2847.10
eye test v11.04-0.62
eye trend v10.060.24
first sub minute (last 10)50.8066.60
form points (last 5)10.0013.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.401.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.400.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.711.06
keeper form v10.650.88
league points35.0036.00
league rank5.004.00
matches since blank9.009.00
matches since clean sheet4.001.00
matches since win1.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.8059.80
possession avg (last 5)56.0039.00
rest days6.135.13
scorer concentration0.190.18
season ppg1.671.71
skill v10.65-2.50
sot against avg (last 5)3.802.60
sot for avg (last 10)5.203.70
sot for avg (last 3)5.334.00
sot for avg (last 5)6.403.80
state index0.230.70
sterile dominance v10.00-1.37
threat rate (last 10)0.270.24
threat rate (last 3)0.310.24
threat rate (last 5)0.300.24
venue ppg (last 5)2.002.00