← Segunda División 2017 · Sun, Jan 7, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Victor Areces Franco, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Almeria win | 38% | 2.56 |
| Draw | 32% | 3.03 |
| Lugo win | 30% | 3.29 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | 🟨 | Marco Motta · Almeria |
| 52' | 🟨 | Mandi · Almeria |
| 54' | 🟨 | Iriome Gonzalez · Lugo |
| 63' | 🟨 | Verza · Almeria |
| 86' | 🟨 | Renê · Almeria |
| 87' | 🟨 | José Pozo · Almeria |
| 89' | 🟨 | Bernardo · Lugo |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marco Motta · Almeria |
| 90' | 🟥 | Marco Motta · Almeria |
| 90' | ⚽ | Rubén Alcaraz · Almeria |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 17 |
| 1 | On target | 4 |
| 1 | Corners | 4 |
| 16 | Fouls | 22 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Almeria | Lugo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.60 |
| venue | Estadio del Mediterráneo |
| coach days | 312.00 | 190.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.57 | 4.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1423.36 | 1469.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.33 | -10.88 |
| eye test v1 | -0.39 | 0.01 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.06 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.30 | 59.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.53 |
| league points | 25.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.40 | 75.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.40 | 53.40 |
| rest days | 16.00 | 16.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 1.55 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.82 | 0.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 26.45 | 26.59 |
| state index | -0.30 | -0.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.99 | 0.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |