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Cadiz 1–0 Granada

← Segunda División 2017 · Sat, Jan 6, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Ruben Eiriz Mata, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cadiz win41%2.40
Draw34%2.91
Granada win26%3.77

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

22'🟨Pierre Kunde · Granada
24'🟨Matthieu Saunier · Granada
29'⚽Ivan Kecojević · Cadiz
76'🟨David Barral · Cadiz
77'🟨Chico · Granada
81'🟨Raul Baena · Granada
82'🟨Rey Manaj · Granada
87'🟥David Barral · Cadiz

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
6Shots17
2On target4
4Corners6
12Fouls12
1Yellow cards5
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCadizGranada
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.400.32
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.430.33
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.610.47
cards avg (last 5)2.001.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Ramon de Carranza
coach days645.00189.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d1.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.200.10
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.40-1.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.204.20
corners for avg (last 5)3.803.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.934.00
defensive leak (last 5)0.040.07
dominance (last 5)0.480.59
elo1588.861516.38
elo momentum (last 5)31.6217.98
eye test v1-0.38-0.05
eye trend v10.20-0.27
first sub minute (last 10)49.9053.50
form points (last 5)13.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.400.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.401.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.031.03
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.90
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.45
keeper form v10.880.76
league points40.0037.00
league rank3.006.00
matches since blank9.002.00
matches since clean sheet2.002.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)68.8069.40
possession avg (last 5)42.2050.40
rest days16.0016.79
scorer concentration0.210.29
season ppg1.821.68
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.604.00
shots for avg (last 5)9.2014.00
skill v1-1.34-0.72
sot against avg (last 5)2.803.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.705.40
sot for avg (last 3)4.334.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.804.40
squad age26.9826.66
state index0.870.29
sterile dominance v1-0.71-0.60
threat rate (last 10)0.250.30
threat rate (last 3)0.280.29
threat rate (last 5)0.230.28
venue ppg (last 5)2.601.20