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Cordoba 5–0 Reus

← Segunda División 2017 · Wed, Dec 20, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jorge Valdes Aller, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cordoba win51%1.91
Draw30%3.20
Reus win18%5.29

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

6'🟨Miguel García · Reus
24'⚽Sergi Guardiola · Cordoba
26'⚽Sergi Guardiola · Cordoba
49'⚽Sergio Aguza · Cordoba
51'🟨Jesus Olmo · Reus
69'🟨Vitor Silva · Reus
78'⚽Sergi Guardiola · Cordoba
85'⚽Sergio Aguza · Cordoba
89'🟨Juan Dominguez · Reus

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
18Shots4
9On target2
3Corners3
14Fouls22
0Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCordobaReus
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.24
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.430.17
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.14
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.650.49
cards avg (last 5)1.201.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Nuevo Arcángel
coach days19.00172.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.05
corner diff avg (last 5)1.800.00
corners against avg (last 5)4.204.20
corners for avg (last 5)6.004.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.632.84
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.07
dominance (last 5)0.500.38
elo1378.781495.43
elo momentum (last 5)-7.98-16.17
eye test v10.27-1.35
eye trend v10.310.10
first sub minute (last 10)52.0054.30
form points (last 5)3.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.60-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.790.79
h2 goals (last 10)0.200.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.20
keeper form v10.640.82
league points14.0031.00
league rank22.0010.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet12.000.00
matches since win12.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.0076.20
possession avg (last 5)52.4051.00
rest days4.004.00
scorer concentration0.380.38
season ppg0.701.48
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.80-7.20
shots for avg (last 5)12.409.40
skill v10.420.03
sot against avg (last 5)5.806.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.902.30
sot for avg (last 3)5.001.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.801.60
squad age26.3926.56
state index-1.09-0.46
sterile dominance v10.210.36
threat rate (last 10)0.230.19
threat rate (last 3)0.210.21
threat rate (last 5)0.250.20
venue ppg (last 5)0.601.00