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Barcelona B 0–1 Albacete

← Segunda División 2017 · Tue, Dec 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: David Perez Pallas, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Barcelona B win47%2.08
Draw30%3.20
Albacete win23%4.31

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

4'🟨Nili · Albacete
7'⚽Nili · Albacete
9'🟨Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta · Barcelona B
18'🟨Jérémie Bela · Albacete
60'🟨Mariano Bittolo · Albacete
65'🟨Rafa Gálvez · Albacete
90'🟨Carles Aleñá · Barcelona B
90'🟨Tomeu Nadal · Albacete

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
7Shots10
1On target2
5Corners2
8Fouls14
2Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBarcelona BAlbacete
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.430.23
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.400.35
box share (last 5)0.560.54
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days903.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueMini Estadi
79.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.381.49
elo1448.771454.42
elo momentum (last 5)-18.81-2.10
eye test v10.23-0.17
eye trend v10.14-0.32
first sub minute (last 10)59.5052.10
form points (last 5)4.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.60-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.740.94
keeper form v10.700.74
league points20.0022.00
league rank19.0017.00
matches since blank4.000.00
matches since clean sheet7.000.00
matches since win1.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)82.2059.00
possession avg (last 5)59.6038.60
rest days3.962.98
scorer concentration0.300.47
season ppg1.051.16
skill v11.25-2.62
sot against avg (last 5)4.603.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.304.60
sot for avg (last 3)4.673.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.404.40
state index-0.48-0.43
sterile dominance v11.06-2.21
threat rate (last 10)0.210.33
threat rate (last 3)0.210.37
threat rate (last 5)0.210.34
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.60