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Huesca 3–0 Lugo

← Segunda División 2017 · Sun, Dec 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Antonio Lopez Toca

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Huesca win54%1.79
Draw28%3.54
Lugo win18%5.41

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

20'🟨Bernardo · Lugo
21'⚽ (pen)Gonzalo Melero · Huesca
41'🟨Álex Remiro · Huesca
44'⚽David Ferreiro · Huesca
63'🟨David Ferreiro · Huesca
77'🟨Ramon Azeez · Lugo
78'⚽Álex Gallar · Huesca
85'🟨Cucho Hernández · Huesca
90'🟨Nicolás Albarracín · Lugo

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
15Shots11
5On target2
5Corners8
16Fouls12
3Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHuescaLugo
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.37
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.38
box share (last 5)0.520.60
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days169.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEl Alcoraz
169.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.873.68
elo1550.851491.21
elo momentum (last 5)14.7717.30
eye test v10.110.27
eye trend v1-0.270.15
first sub minute (last 10)53.1062.20
form points (last 5)10.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.000.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.800.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.180.85
keeper form v10.830.64
league points33.0033.00
league rank2.003.00
matches since blank2.004.00
matches since clean sheet3.002.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.2075.00
possession avg (last 5)51.2055.40
rest days7.927.00
scorer concentration0.400.21
season ppg1.831.83
skill v10.150.21
sot against avg (last 5)3.601.60
sot for avg (last 10)5.004.70
sot for avg (last 3)4.005.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.405.00
state index0.520.17
sterile dominance v1-0.100.19
threat rate (last 10)0.280.25
threat rate (last 3)0.220.28
threat rate (last 5)0.270.25
venue ppg (last 5)2.601.60