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Zaragoza 0–2 Cadiz

← Segunda División 2017 · Sat, Dec 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Adrian Cordero Vega, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Zaragoza win39%2.48
Draw31%3.10
Cadiz win29%3.35

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

6'🟨Giorgi Papunashvili · Zaragoza
26'🟨Alberto Zapater · Zaragoza
28'🟨Diogo Verdasca · Zaragoza
28'🟥Diogo Verdasca · Zaragoza
31'🟨Vinícius Araújo · Zaragoza
37'🟨Lucas Bijker · Cadiz
52'⚽Álvaro García · Cadiz
58'🟨Jon Ander Garrido · Cadiz
68'🟥Cristian Álvarez · Zaragoza
90'⚽Daniel Romera · Cadiz

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
6Shots13
2On target3
5Corners3
15Fouls14
4Yellow cards2
2Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricZaragozaCadiz
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.260.45
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.390.43
box share (last 5)0.610.57
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days161.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueLa Romareda
617.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.912.01
elo1443.271529.64
elo momentum (last 5)-4.3662.50
eye test v10.33-0.29
eye trend v10.120.30
first sub minute (last 10)59.9051.00
form points (last 5)7.0015.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.601.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.600.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.161.10
keeper form v10.690.82
league points22.0029.00
league rank13.005.00
matches since blank1.005.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.6065.00
possession avg (last 5)53.0040.00
rest days6.006.10
scorer concentration0.240.21
season ppg1.291.71
skill v10.32-1.90
sot against avg (last 5)5.401.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.403.30
sot for avg (last 3)5.004.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.804.20
state index-0.260.80
sterile dominance v10.09-1.23
threat rate (last 10)0.230.22
threat rate (last 3)0.320.25
threat rate (last 5)0.260.26
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.40