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Albacete 2–1 Valladolid

← Segunda División 2017 · Sat, Dec 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Saul Ais Reig, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Valladolid win36%2.69
Albacete win32%3.02
Draw31%3.11

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

19'⚽Roman Zozulya · Albacete
44'🟨Esteban Saveljich · Albacete
55'🟨Fabian Espindola · Albacete
62'🟨Iban Salvador · Valladolid
67'⚽Roman Zozulya · Albacete
68'🟨Antoñito · Valladolid
71'⚽ (og)Mickael Gaffoor · Valladolid

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
17Shots6
9On target2
5Corners5
16Fouls14
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlbaceteValladolid
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.44
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.55
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.48
box share (last 5)0.480.73
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days69.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueCarlos Belmonte
161.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.633.36
elo1447.981469.88
elo momentum (last 5)4.94-29.65
eye test v1-0.430.54
eye trend v1-0.210.06
first sub minute (last 10)51.6060.50
form points (last 5)6.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.941.26
keeper form v10.680.53
league points18.0023.00
league rank19.0011.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet3.008.00
matches since win3.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)60.8078.40
possession avg (last 5)40.8059.80
rest days5.926.00
scorer concentration0.380.42
season ppg1.061.35
skill v1-2.280.87
sot against avg (last 5)4.203.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.305.00
sot for avg (last 3)3.675.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.005.20
state index-0.19-0.70
sterile dominance v1-1.560.89
threat rate (last 10)0.290.20
threat rate (last 3)0.270.18
threat rate (last 5)0.280.21
venue ppg (last 5)2.200.60