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Valladolid 2–3 Numancia

← Segunda División 2017 · Sun, Dec 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Victor Areces Franco, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Valladolid win51%1.92
Draw29%3.39
Numancia win20%4.79

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

12'⚽Jaime Mata · Valladolid
17'⚽Jaime Mata · Valladolid
21'🟨Kiko Olivas · Valladolid
26'🟨Deivid · Valladolid
46'🟨Dani Calvo · Numancia
60'⚽Nacho Sánchez · Numancia
65'🟨Kiko Olivas · Valladolid
65'🟥Kiko Olivas · Valladolid
71'⚽Carlos Gutiérrez · Numancia
85'⚽Guillermo · Numancia

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
13Shots16
7On target7
10Corners6
15Fouls8
3Yellow cards1
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricValladolidNumancia
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.440.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.550.25
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.460.29
box share (last 5)0.700.57
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days155.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueJosé Zorrilla
916.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.462.32
elo1482.981431.70
elo momentum (last 5)-15.70-3.06
eye test v10.50-1.27
eye trend v1-0.18-0.43
first sub minute (last 10)59.4063.50
form points (last 5)5.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.481.34
keeper form v10.540.69
league points23.0025.00
league rank11.008.00
matches since blank0.008.00
matches since clean sheet7.002.00
matches since win1.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.2063.60
possession avg (last 5)62.4040.80
rest days8.007.92
scorer concentration0.380.27
season ppg1.441.56
skill v11.24-1.99
sot against avg (last 5)3.404.20
sot for avg (last 10)5.203.90
sot for avg (last 3)4.332.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.002.40
state index-0.25-0.49
sterile dominance v11.16-0.88
threat rate (last 10)0.200.27
threat rate (last 3)0.130.22
threat rate (last 5)0.200.21
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.00