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Lorca FC 0–2 Oviedo

← Segunda División 2017 · Sat, Dec 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Isidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Oviedo win34%2.89
Draw34%2.91
Lorca FC win32%3.03

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

13'⚽David Rocha · Oviedo
14'🟨Francisco Dorronsoro · Lorca FC
14'🟨Cristian Bustos · Lorca FC
23'🟨Saúl Berjón · Oviedo
26'⚽Miguel Linares · Oviedo
28'🟨Ramon Folch · Oviedo
40'🟨José Carlos Ramírez · Lorca FC
65'🟨Diegui · Oviedo
82'🟨— · Lorca FC
83'🟨Juan Forlin · Oviedo
89'🟨Miguel Linares · Oviedo

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2
6Shots8
1On target5
3Corners3
15Fouls20
4Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLorca FCOviedo
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.440.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.480.30
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.470.28
box share (last 5)0.570.67
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days123.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Francisco Artes Carrasco
154.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.992.50
elo1453.721477.66
elo momentum (last 5)-1.604.18
eye test v10.19-0.38
eye trend v1-0.22-0.06
first sub minute (last 10)61.6057.60
form points (last 5)7.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.921.08
keeper form v10.63—
league points16.0023.00
league rank19.0011.00
matches since blank6.004.00
matches since clean sheet0.005.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.4072.20
possession avg (last 5)50.4053.40
rest days7.087.08
scorer concentration0.170.25
season ppg1.001.44
skill v1-0.41-0.22
sot against avg (last 5)2.803.20
sot for avg (last 10)5.404.10
sot for avg (last 3)4.674.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.803.60
state index-0.21-0.20
sterile dominance v1-0.11-0.04
threat rate (last 10)0.250.24
threat rate (last 3)0.220.24
threat rate (last 5)0.230.25
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.80