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Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 1–0 Granada

← Segunda División 2017 · Sat, Dec 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Santiago Varon Aceiton

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win47%2.09
Draw29%3.39
Granada win25%3.95

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

38'🟨Alejandro Domínguez · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid
42'🟨Ángel Montoro · Granada
71'🟨Francisco Cerro · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid
81'🟨Joselu · Granada
88'⚽Dorado · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
15Shots10
7On target3
6Corners4
17Fouls21
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRayo Vallecano de MadridGranada
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.290.36
box share (last 5)0.500.58
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days304.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio de Vallecas
154.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.733.22
elo1500.271452.98
elo momentum (last 5)-3.0225.07
eye test v1-0.020.74
eye trend v10.050.15
first sub minute (last 10)58.0057.60
form points (last 5)6.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.200.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.081.25
h2h win rate (last 5)0.900.10
keeper form v10.720.75
league points25.0027.00
league rank7.003.00
matches since blank4.003.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.6076.00
possession avg (last 5)55.8052.80
rest days7.886.08
scorer concentration0.260.33
season ppg1.561.69
skill v10.820.14
sot against avg (last 5)3.802.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.705.10
sot for avg (last 3)4.676.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.005.80
state index0.000.15
sterile dominance v10.47-0.44
threat rate (last 10)0.270.28
threat rate (last 3)0.270.35
threat rate (last 5)0.250.32
venue ppg (last 5)2.201.60