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Granada 2–0 Huesca

← Segunda División 2017 · Sun, Nov 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Inaki Vicandi Garrido, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Granada win45%2.18
Draw31%3.17
Huesca win25%3.92

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

33'⚽Joselu · Granada
35'⚽Darwin Machís · Granada
40'🟨Cucho Hernández · Huesca
83'🟨Carlos Akapo · Huesca
87'🟨Gonzalo Melero · Huesca
89'🟨David Ferreiro · Huesca
90'🟨Quini · Granada
90'🟨David Ferreiro · Huesca
90'🟥David Ferreiro · Huesca

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
13Shots6
5On target3
11Corners1
17Fouls8
1Yellow cards5
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGranadaHuesca
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.32
box share (last 5)0.590.52
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days148.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueNuevo Los Cármenes
148.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.802.38
elo1435.021564.51
elo momentum (last 5)26.5444.06
eye test v11.010.47
eye trend v10.050.12
first sub minute (last 10)58.9054.10
form points (last 5)8.0013.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.801.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.000.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.321.06
keeper form v10.740.89
league points24.0029.00
league rank7.001.00
matches since blank2.003.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win3.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.2077.20
possession avg (last 5)54.4053.60
rest days6.838.00
scorer concentration0.320.48
season ppg1.601.93
skill v10.370.32
sot against avg (last 5)3.803.60
sot for avg (last 10)5.205.50
sot for avg (last 3)6.006.33
sot for avg (last 5)6.405.40
state index0.100.77
sterile dominance v1-0.34-0.14
threat rate (last 10)0.280.31
threat rate (last 3)0.310.36
threat rate (last 5)0.320.29
venue ppg (last 5)2.401.60