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Barcelona B 1–1 Almeria

← Segunda División 2017 · Sun, Nov 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Adrian Cordero Vega, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Barcelona B win52%1.88
Draw28%3.46
Almeria win20%4.91

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

20'🟨Anthony Lozano · Barcelona B
35'🟨Oriol Busquets · Barcelona B
38'🟨Joaquín Fernández · Almeria
55'⚽Anthony Lozano · Barcelona B
63'🟨Sergi Palencia · Barcelona B
64'🟨Adrián Ortolá · Barcelona B
64'⚽ (pen)Verza · Almeria
73'🟨Gaspar Panadero · Almeria
86'🟨Rubén Alcaraz · Almeria
88'🟥Tino Costa · Almeria

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
12Shots9
5On target5
9Corners0
15Fouls16
4Yellow cards3
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBarcelona BAlmeria
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.24
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.250.33
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.28
box share (last 5)0.510.48
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days880.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueMini Estadi
270.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.113.50
elo1459.931397.29
elo momentum (last 5)-25.83-26.00
eye test v10.04-0.44
eye trend v1-0.160.48
first sub minute (last 10)55.7057.40
form points (last 5)3.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.60-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.400.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.671.25
keeper form v10.790.68
league points16.0015.00
league rank19.0020.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet3.000.00
matches since win6.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)85.4075.60
possession avg (last 5)52.2054.60
rest days6.838.63
scorer concentration0.310.18
season ppg1.071.00
skill v11.080.22
sot against avg (last 5)5.202.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.802.80
sot for avg (last 3)3.003.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.003.20
state index-0.81-0.91
sterile dominance v10.610.28
threat rate (last 10)0.210.23
threat rate (last 3)0.230.25
threat rate (last 5)0.230.23
venue ppg (last 5)1.000.20