⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Oviedo 3–1 Numancia

← Segunda División 2017 · Sat, Nov 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Eduardo Prieto Iglesias, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Oviedo win48%2.05
Draw31%3.17
Numancia win22%4.51

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

15'⚽Carlos Hernández · Oviedo
32'⚽Higinio Marín · Numancia
36'🟨Christian Fernández · Oviedo
50'🟨Ramon Folch · Oviedo
52'🟨Unai Elgezabal · Numancia
57'⚽ (og)Dani Calvo · Oviedo
67'⚽Miguel Linares · Oviedo
71'🟨Diegui · Oviedo
86'🟨Adrian Ripa · Numancia

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
10Shots10
4On target4
9Corners3
15Fouls14
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricOviedoNumancia
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.290.19
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.240.29
box share (last 5)0.700.58
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days147.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueJorge Garbajosa
908.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.312.22
elo1466.181443.18
elo momentum (last 5)1.97-11.00
eye test v1-0.50-0.87
eye trend v10.09-0.45
first sub minute (last 10)59.8063.40
form points (last 5)9.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.951.40
keeper form v10.590.73
league points20.0025.00
league rank11.005.00
matches since blank3.007.00
matches since clean sheet4.001.00
matches since win1.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.8063.80
possession avg (last 5)53.0041.40
rest days7.006.25
scorer concentration0.280.29
season ppg1.331.67
skill v1-0.08-1.92
sot against avg (last 5)3.005.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.803.60
sot for avg (last 3)4.001.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.203.20
state index-0.07-0.39
sterile dominance v1-0.06-1.13
threat rate (last 10)0.250.26
threat rate (last 3)0.270.22
threat rate (last 5)0.250.25
venue ppg (last 5)2.201.20