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Tenerife 2–2 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid

← Segunda División 2017 · Fri, Nov 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Oliver de la Fuente Ramos, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Tenerife win40%2.45
Draw31%3.17
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win29%3.31

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

7'⚽Diego Aguirre · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid
29'🟨Carlos Ruiz · Tenerife
41'🟨Samuele Longo · Tenerife
51'⚽Samuele Longo · Tenerife
53'⚽Santi Comesaña · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid
58'🟨Tyronne · Tenerife
60'🟨Luis Pérez · Tenerife
66'🟨Baiano · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid
69'🟥Santi Comesaña · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid
86'⚽Samuele Longo · Tenerife
90'🟨Víctor Casadesús · Tenerife

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
12Shots6
6On target3
12Corners0
17Fouls13
5Yellow cards1
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricTenerifeRayo Vallecano de Madrid
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.480.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.490.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.560.27
box share (last 5)0.620.46
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days754.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueHeliodoro Rodríguez López
296.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.302.78
elo1509.831498.24
elo momentum (last 5)-7.79-6.30
eye test v10.230.27
eye trend v1-0.070.14
first sub minute (last 10)54.4058.40
form points (last 5)6.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.251.17
keeper form v10.800.71
league points21.0024.00
league rank10.005.00
matches since blank0.003.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.2081.00
possession avg (last 5)43.6059.20
rest days6.215.21
scorer concentration0.310.29
season ppg1.401.60
skill v1-0.891.10
sot against avg (last 5)4.803.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.704.80
sot for avg (last 3)4.335.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.004.60
state index-0.04-0.18
sterile dominance v1-0.390.51
threat rate (last 10)0.230.30
threat rate (last 3)0.250.31
threat rate (last 5)0.220.27
venue ppg (last 5)2.201.00