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Cultural Leonesa 1–1 Granada

← Segunda División 2017 · Sun, Nov 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Damaso Arcediano Monescillo, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cultural Leonesa win35%2.81
Granada win34%2.87
Draw31%3.11

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

8'🟨Darwin Machís · Granada
38'🟨Víctor Díaz · Cultural Leonesa
41'🟨Yeray Gonzalez · Cultural Leonesa
43'⚽Rodri · Cultural Leonesa
58'🟨Matthieu Saunier · Granada
80'⚽Joselu · Granada
90'🟨Quini · Granada

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
14Shots20
3On target7
6Corners7
13Fouls17
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCultural LeonesaGranada
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.280.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.180.36
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.240.35
blown lead rate (last 20)—0.10
box share (last 5)0.520.66
cards avg (last 5)2.002.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Reino de Leon
coach days567.00141.00
comeback rate (last 20)—0.00
congestion 21d2.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.050.13
corner diff avg (last 5)0.201.00
corners against avg (last 5)4.605.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.806.60
corners volatility (last 10)1.493.28
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.11
dominance (last 5)0.540.61
elo1456.271481.10
elo momentum (last 5)-14.43-0.28
eye test v1-0.360.45
eye trend v10.230.09
first sub minute (last 10)55.7058.90
form points (last 5)4.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.711.32
h2 goals (last 10)0.401.00
ht lead rate (last 20)—0.35
keeper form v10.780.76
league points19.0023.00
league rank15.0011.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet2.002.00
matches since win10.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)83.0074.80
possession avg (last 5)60.8055.20
rest days8.007.00
scorer concentration0.210.28
season ppg1.191.53
shot diff avg (last 5)2.405.00
shots for avg (last 5)12.6015.00
skill v11.420.18
sot against avg (last 5)3.403.60
sot for avg (last 10)2.604.80
sot for avg (last 3)2.675.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.005.40
squad age25.6927.12
state index-0.72-0.01
sterile dominance v11.10-0.07
threat rate (last 10)0.190.26
threat rate (last 3)0.250.29
threat rate (last 5)0.210.28
venue ppg (last 5)0.601.40