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Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 1–0 Barcelona B

← Segunda División 2017 · Sun, Nov 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Saul Ais Reig, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win61%1.59
Draw23%4.17
Barcelona B win15%6.39

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

63'🟨Sergi Palencia · Barcelona B
74'⚽Óscar Trejo · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid
85'🟨Óscar Trejo · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
19Shots11
6On target3
6Corners3
6Fouls10
1Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRayo Vallecano de MadridBarcelona B
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.270.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.210.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.260.37
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.20
box share (last 5)0.530.51
cards avg (last 5)1.202.00
coach days291.00873.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.07
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio de Vallecas
corner diff avg (last 5)4.80-1.40
corners against avg (last 5)3.204.80
corners for avg (last 5)8.003.40
corners volatility (last 10)3.502.05
elo1490.581467.58
elo momentum (last 5)3.07-17.52
eye test v10.020.17
eye trend v1-0.22-0.08
first sub minute (last 10)56.4055.70
form points (last 5)6.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.270.63
keeper form v10.710.80
league points21.0016.00
league rank9.0018.00
matches since blank2.000.00
matches since clean sheet2.002.00
matches since win4.005.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.2086.60
possession avg (last 5)58.6054.40
rest days7.927.85
scorer concentration0.250.31
season ppg1.501.14
skill v10.871.35
sot against avg (last 5)3.604.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.204.10
sot for avg (last 3)3.673.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.204.20
state index-0.04-0.68
sterile dominance v10.520.90
threat rate (last 10)0.280.22
threat rate (last 3)0.230.22
threat rate (last 5)0.250.22
venue ppg (last 5)2.200.80