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Valladolid 3–1 Oviedo

← Segunda División 2017 · Sat, Nov 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Ruben Eiriz Mata, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Valladolid win52%1.86
Draw28%3.45
Oviedo win19%5.04

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

4'⚽Deivid · Valladolid
74'🟨McDonald Mariga · Oviedo
76'🟨Juan Forlin · Oviedo
77'⚽Jaime Mata · Valladolid
87'⚽Miguel Linares · Oviedo
90'🟨Giannis Gianniotas · Valladolid
90'🟨Mossa · Oviedo
90'⚽Míchel Herrero · Valladolid

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
5Shots9
3On target3
5Corners11
13Fouls17
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricValladolidOviedo
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.410.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.400.25
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.24
box share (last 5)0.670.64
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days140.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueJosé Zorrilla
140.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.311.69
elo1478.231478.63
elo momentum (last 5)-23.46-1.79
eye test v10.65-0.66
eye trend v1-0.080.07
first sub minute (last 10)59.5058.70
form points (last 5)4.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.600.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.420.95
keeper form v10.570.63
league points20.0020.00
league rank10.0011.00
matches since blank1.002.00
matches since clean sheet5.003.00
matches since win5.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)84.4072.00
possession avg (last 5)65.2051.00
rest days5.906.08
scorer concentration0.380.29
season ppg1.431.43
skill v11.87-0.40
sot against avg (last 5)3.802.80
sot for avg (last 10)5.703.70
sot for avg (last 3)5.673.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.203.00
state index-0.53-0.24
sterile dominance v11.30-0.19
threat rate (last 10)0.230.25
threat rate (last 3)0.250.28
threat rate (last 5)0.230.25
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.80