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Huesca 3–0 Tenerife

← Segunda División 2017 · Sat, Nov 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Valentin Pizarro Gomez, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Huesca win46%2.11
Draw31%3.20
Tenerife win23%4.21

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

26'🟨Alberto Jiménez · Tenerife
35'⚽Gonzalo Melero · Huesca
36'⚽Cucho Hernández · Huesca
38'🟨Juan Villar · Tenerife
67'⚽Gonzalo Melero · Huesca
70'🟨Raul Camara · Tenerife
81'🟨Carlos Ruiz · Tenerife
86'🟨Jorge Sáenz · Tenerife

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
20Shots7
6On target3
4Corners5
13Fouls21
0Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHuescaTenerife
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.48
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.250.56
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.56
box share (last 5)0.520.65
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days140.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEl Alcoraz
748.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.413.34
elo1551.371522.97
elo momentum (last 5)32.741.76
eye test v10.480.26
eye trend v1-0.370.24
first sub minute (last 10)54.2055.70
form points (last 5)11.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.000.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.400.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.971.25
keeper form v10.820.81
league points26.0021.00
league rank1.007.00
matches since blank2.002.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.6073.20
possession avg (last 5)51.8044.80
rest days6.856.92
scorer concentration0.500.31
season ppg1.861.50
skill v10.13-0.71
sot against avg (last 5)3.604.00
sot for avg (last 10)5.204.80
sot for avg (last 3)4.336.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.605.00
state index0.71-0.05
sterile dominance v1-0.09-0.25
threat rate (last 10)0.300.23
threat rate (last 3)0.280.26
threat rate (last 5)0.270.21
venue ppg (last 5)2.600.60