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Tenerife 2–0 Cultural Leonesa

← Segunda División 2017 · Sat, Nov 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Inaki Vicandi Garrido, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Tenerife win61%1.60
Draw24%4.02
Cultural Leonesa win15%6.70

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

2'⚽Filip Malbašić · Tenerife
10'🟨Jesús Fernández · Cultural Leonesa
11'⚽Samuele Longo · Tenerife
58'🟨Jorge Sáenz · Tenerife
80'🟨Juan Villar · Tenerife

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
7Shots14
5On target2
0Corners6
19Fouls13
2Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricTenerifeCultural Leonesa
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.450.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.550.19
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.510.26
blown lead rate (last 20)0.10—
box share (last 5)0.540.46
cards avg (last 5)2.801.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueHeliodoro Rodríguez López
coach days741.00559.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.00—
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.05
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.20-1.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.806.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.604.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.961.43
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.14
dominance (last 5)0.450.53
elo1525.421466.32
elo momentum (last 5)-12.77-20.85
eye test v10.01-0.42
eye trend v10.240.14
first sub minute (last 10)54.0055.60
form points (last 5)5.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.000.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.231.03
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.35—
keeper form v10.770.81
league points19.0019.00
league rank12.0011.00
matches since blank2.001.00
matches since clean sheet2.001.00
matches since win6.009.00
pass acc avg (last 5)71.6083.20
possession avg (last 5)47.6059.00
rest days6.926.00
scorer concentration0.290.21
season ppg1.361.27
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.801.80
shots for avg (last 5)9.2011.60
skill v1-0.681.32
sot against avg (last 5)5.403.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.602.90
sot for avg (last 3)5.672.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.603.00
squad age28.0625.53
state index-0.26-0.68
sterile dominance v1-0.031.11
threat rate (last 10)0.220.18
threat rate (last 3)0.240.23
threat rate (last 5)0.200.20
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.20