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Huesca 3–1 Zaragoza

← Segunda División 2017 · Mon, Nov 6, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Oliver de la Fuente Ramos, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Huesca win45%2.17
Draw29%3.32
Zaragoza win26%3.79

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

16'⚽Gonzalo Melero · Huesca
43'🟨Juan Aguilera · Huesca
46'🟨Borja Iglesias · Zaragoza
55'🟨Alberto Zapater · Zaragoza
63'⚽Cucho Hernández · Huesca
77'🟨Lluis Sastre · Huesca
84'⚽Alberto Zapater · Zaragoza
85'⚽Cucho Hernández · Huesca
90'🟨Diogo Verdasca · Zaragoza

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
19Shots7
9On target4
8Corners4
19Fouls16
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHuescaZaragoza
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.40
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.39
box share (last 5)0.540.64
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days128.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEl Alcoraz
128.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.103.25
elo1526.781447.63
elo momentum (last 5)22.7533.38
eye test v10.54-0.01
eye trend v1-0.11-0.20
first sub minute (last 10)58.6061.90
form points (last 5)9.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.801.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.400.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.920.97
keeper form v10.790.79
league points20.0015.00
league rank7.0015.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win1.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.0082.80
possession avg (last 5)51.6055.20
rest days9.1710.04
scorer concentration0.380.33
season ppg1.671.25
skill v10.261.01
sot against avg (last 5)4.203.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.704.00
sot for avg (last 3)5.003.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.404.00
state index0.460.14
sterile dominance v1-0.250.92
threat rate (last 10)0.270.20
threat rate (last 3)0.200.20
threat rate (last 5)0.290.20
venue ppg (last 5)2.201.60