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Oviedo 3–2 Lugo

← Segunda División 2017 · Sun, Nov 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Gorka Sagues Oscoz, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Oviedo win51%1.92
Draw29%3.41
Lugo win21%4.75

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

11'⚽Cristian Herrera · Lugo
21'🟨McDonald Mariga · Oviedo
39'🟨Serge Leuko · Lugo
51'⚽ (pen)Saúl Berjón · Oviedo
54'⚽Miguel Linares · Oviedo
55'🟨Roberto Fernández · Lugo
60'🟨Aaron Ñiguez · Oviedo
61'⚽Ramon Azeez · Lugo
65'🟨Luis Ruiz · Lugo
71'⚽Aaron Ñiguez · Oviedo
90'🟨Carlos Hernández · Oviedo
90'🟨Mossa · Oviedo

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
12Shots12
3On target4
9Corners3
14Fouls13
4Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricOviedoLugo
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.200.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.35
box share (last 5)0.580.67
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days127.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueJorge Garbajosa
127.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.082.32
elo1458.651482.89
elo momentum (last 5)-20.3814.50
eye test v1-0.30-0.15
eye trend v1-0.520.04
first sub minute (last 10)53.9064.10
form points (last 5)5.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.200.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.920.79
keeper form v1—0.79
league points14.0023.00
league rank16.001.00
matches since blank0.004.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)70.4076.00
possession avg (last 5)50.4053.00
rest days6.757.88
scorer concentration0.360.30
season ppg1.171.92
skill v1-0.610.16
sot against avg (last 5)3.003.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.004.30
sot for avg (last 3)2.004.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.004.00
state index-0.280.16
sterile dominance v1-0.370.27
threat rate (last 10)0.260.22
threat rate (last 3)0.210.25
threat rate (last 5)0.260.22
venue ppg (last 5)2.202.00