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Granada 4–1 Lorca FC

← Segunda División 2017 · Mon, Oct 30, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: David Perez Pallas, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Granada win55%1.79
Draw27%3.61
Lorca FC win18%5.30

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

9'⚽Darwin Machís · Granada
41'⚽ (pen)Darwin Machís · Granada
42'🟨Alberto Noguera · Lorca FC
44'🟨Ángel Montoro · Granada
59'⚽Tropi · Lorca FC
61'🟨Víctor Díaz · Granada
69'⚽Joselu · Granada
73'⚽Darwin Machís · Granada
78'🟥Sito · Lorca FC

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
18Shots8
6On target5
7Corners6
15Fouls14
2Yellow cards1
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGranadaLorca FC
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.270.36
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.41
box share (last 5)0.700.57
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days121.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueNuevo Los Cármenes
90.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.792.58
elo1427.911455.32
elo momentum (last 5)53.15-21.17
eye test v1-0.030.78
eye trend v10.030.28
first sub minute (last 10)56.0061.20
form points (last 5)12.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.00-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.921.03
keeper form v10.75—
league points19.009.00
league rank8.0021.00
matches since blank2.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.004.00
matches since win0.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)71.2077.40
possession avg (last 5)50.6056.40
rest days9.159.06
scorer concentration0.360.14
season ppg1.730.82
skill v1-0.510.54
sot against avg (last 5)3.204.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.705.00
sot for avg (last 3)4.006.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.406.00
state index0.41-0.80
sterile dominance v1-0.300.18
threat rate (last 10)0.220.24
threat rate (last 3)0.250.32
threat rate (last 5)0.250.27
venue ppg (last 5)2.200.00