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Almeria 0–1 Reus

← Segunda División 2017 · Sun, Oct 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Gorka Sagues Oscoz, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Almeria win42%2.35
Draw33%2.99
Reus win26%3.78

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

38'⚽Borja Fernández · Reus
58'🟨Borja Fernández · Reus
76'🟨Édgar Badía · Reus

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
13Shots5
3On target2
8Corners4
10Fouls12
0Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlmeriaReus
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.270.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.200.45
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.210.36
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.410.64
cards avg (last 5)2.801.60
coach days235.00113.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.005.00
conversion (last 5)0.050.07
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio del Mediterráneo
corner diff avg (last 5)
-3.80
-1.60
corners against avg (last 5)8.005.20
corners for avg (last 5)4.203.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.200.99
defensive leak (last 5)0.060.07
dominance (last 5)0.410.45
elo1464.451491.20
elo momentum (last 5)-10.992.51
eye test v1-0.85-0.32
eye trend v1-0.130.53
first sub minute (last 10)54.8056.60
form points (last 5)5.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.800.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.200.48
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.30
keeper form v10.790.76
league points15.0015.00
league rank13.0014.00
matches since blank1.000.00
matches since clean sheet3.003.00
matches since win4.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.2077.80
possession avg (last 5)48.2048.80
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.250.50
season ppg1.361.36
shot diff avg (last 5)-4.20-2.40
shots for avg (last 5)10.8010.40
skill v10.260.06
sot against avg (last 5)4.603.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.303.40
sot for avg (last 3)2.005.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.403.80
squad age27.2727.81
state index-0.35-0.22
sterile dominance v10.220.27
threat rate (last 10)0.230.20
threat rate (last 3)0.220.23
threat rate (last 5)0.220.20
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.60