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Oviedo 2–0 Cordoba

← Segunda División 2017 · Sun, Oct 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Alvaro Moreno Aragon

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Oviedo win52%1.86
Draw27%3.59
Cordoba win21%4.75

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

39'🟨Carlos Hernández · Oviedo
59'⚽ (og)Sergi Guardiola · Oviedo
78'🟨Sergi Guardiola · Cordoba
81'🟨McDonald Mariga · Oviedo
84'🟨Sergio Aguza · Cordoba
86'🟨Javi Galán · Cordoba
88'🟨João Afonso · Cordoba
90'🟨Ramon Folch · Oviedo
90'⚽Diegui · Oviedo

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
13Shots10
2On target3
4Corners1
27Fouls12
3Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricOviedoCordoba
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.390.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.390.36
box share (last 5)0.570.54
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days113.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueJorge Garbajosa
21.00
congestion 21d4.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.353.89
elo1464.211384.46
elo momentum (last 5)-28.33-41.47
eye test v1-0.19-0.01
eye trend v10.20-0.15
first sub minute (last 10)55.3057.10
form points (last 5)3.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.60-1.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.602.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.821.06
keeper form v1—0.72
league points11.009.00
league rank16.0021.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet5.002.00
matches since win5.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)67.2075.40
possession avg (last 5)48.0052.60
rest days7.756.67
scorer concentration0.380.42
season ppg1.100.90
skill v1-1.100.07
sot against avg (last 5)3.407.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.304.60
sot for avg (last 3)5.334.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.404.40
state index-0.72-1.22
sterile dominance v1-0.540.14
threat rate (last 10)0.250.24
threat rate (last 3)0.270.21
threat rate (last 5)0.240.23
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.60