⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Huesca 1–0 Cadiz

← Segunda División 2017 · Sat, Oct 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Juan Luis Pulido Santana, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Huesca win50%1.95
Draw30%3.29
Cadiz win20%4.80

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

12'⚽Lluis Sastre · Huesca
26'🟨Rafidine Abdullah · Cadiz
39'🟨Álvaro García · Cadiz
58'🟨Jorge Pulido · Huesca
74'🟨Álex Remiro · Huesca
90'🟨José Mari · Cadiz

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
14Shots8
8On target1
4Corners7
11Fouls10
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHuescaCadiz
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.390.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.31
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.580.58
cards avg (last 5)0.602.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEl Alcoraz
coach days112.00568.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d5.005.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.05
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.202.60
corners against avg (last 5)6.203.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.005.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.001.60
defensive leak (last 5)0.050.16
dominance (last 5)0.570.51
elo1534.051498.39
elo momentum (last 5)29.81-46.54
eye test v10.75-1.09
eye trend v10.56-0.06
first sub minute (last 10)58.8055.40
form points (last 5)9.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.80-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.600.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.920.85
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.15
keeper form v10.750.75
league points18.0014.00
league rank6.0014.00
matches since blank7.001.00
matches since clean sheet3.001.00
matches since win3.007.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.6061.20
possession avg (last 5)47.4041.20
rest days7.797.00
scorer concentration0.420.40
season ppg1.501.27
shot diff avg (last 5)4.000.60
shots for avg (last 5)15.609.60
skill v10.04-2.19
sot against avg (last 5)3.803.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.403.50
sot for avg (last 3)6.333.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.602.80
squad age25.3826.73
state index0.37-0.93
sterile dominance v1-0.75-1.09
threat rate (last 10)0.280.25
threat rate (last 3)0.370.21
threat rate (last 5)0.330.23
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.00