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Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 1–0 Almeria

← Segunda División 2017 · Thu, Oct 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Juan Luis Pulido Santana, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win60%1.63
Draw24%4.06
Almeria win16%6.05

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

43'🟨José Pozo · Almeria
44'🟨Adrián Embarba · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid
45'🟥Jorge Morcillo · Almeria
53'⚽Santi Comesaña · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid
62'🟨Nano · Almeria
68'🟨Unai López · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid
84'🟨José Pozo · Almeria
84'🟥José Pozo · Almeria

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
18Shots6
8On target1
11Corners3
10Fouls24
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards2

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRayo Vallecano de MadridAlmeria
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.280.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.300.23
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.210.26
box share (last 5)0.420.45
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days253.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio de Vallecas
225.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.111.94
elo1480.611429.65
elo momentum (last 5)-1.380.05
eye test v1-0.32-0.61
eye trend v10.20-0.26
first sub minute (last 10)60.5058.20
form points (last 5)7.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.200.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.430.99
h2h win rate (last 5)0.800.20
keeper form v10.670.72
league points12.0011.00
league rank12.0015.00
matches since blank3.000.00
matches since clean sheet3.001.00
matches since win0.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.6080.20
possession avg (last 5)50.2052.20
rest days4.215.13
scorer concentration0.330.29
season ppg1.501.38
skill v10.450.54
sot against avg (last 5)3.604.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.503.80
sot for avg (last 3)4.332.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.003.00
state index-0.10-0.47
sterile dominance v1-0.200.59
threat rate (last 10)0.290.24
threat rate (last 3)0.350.20
threat rate (last 5)0.290.20
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.80