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Numancia 1–0 Barcelona B

← Segunda División 2017 · Wed, Oct 11, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Gorka Sagues Oscoz, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Numancia win55%1.79
Draw26%3.77
Barcelona B win19%5.02

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

18'🟨Unai Elgezabal · Numancia
50'🟨Unai Medina · Numancia
50'🟨Alberto Escassi · Numancia
53'🟨Ferran Sarsanedas · Barcelona B
59'🟨Pablo Valcarce · Numancia
77'🟨Adrian Ripa · Numancia
81'🟨Anthony Lozano · Barcelona B
82'🟨Carles Aleñá · Barcelona B
82'⚽ (pen)Guillermo · Numancia
84'🟨Marc Cucurella · Barcelona B

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
19Shots9
6On target3
8Corners4
15Fouls12
5Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricNumanciaBarcelona B
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.44
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.330.52
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.50
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.10
box share (last 5)0.620.52
cards avg (last 5)1.801.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueLos Pajaritos
coach days863.00834.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.16
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.80-1.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.46—
elo1441.001486.80
elo momentum (last 5)15.35-4.74
eye test v1-0.790.50
eye trend v10.090.07
first sub minute (last 10)60.0059.86
form points (last 5)7.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.600.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.69—
keeper form v10.820.83
league points14.009.00
league rank4.0018.00
matches since blank0.005.00
matches since clean sheet2.003.00
matches since win1.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)68.6078.00
possession avg (last 5)47.0048.80
rest days2.983.08
scorer concentration0.360.27
season ppg1.751.29
skill v1-1.020.08
sot against avg (last 5)3.403.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.704.57
sot for avg (last 3)4.005.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.205.40
state index0.09-0.15
sterile dominance v1-0.330.08
threat rate (last 10)0.260.22
threat rate (last 3)0.240.19
threat rate (last 5)0.210.23
venue ppg (last 5)2.40—