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Barcelona B 1–1 Oviedo

← Segunda División 2017 · Sun, Oct 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jorge Figueroa Vazquez, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Oviedo win37%2.61
Barcelona B win32%3.01
Draw30%3.23

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

19'🟨Hector Verdes · Oviedo
23'🟨Ferran Sarsanedas · Barcelona B
40'⚽José Manuel Arnáiz · Barcelona B
55'⚽Carlos Hernández · Oviedo
90'🟨Christian Fernández · Oviedo

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
9Shots15
4On target5
6Corners5
5Fouls11
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBarcelona BOviedo
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.440.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.550.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.430.35
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.510.61
cards avg (last 5)1.402.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueMini Estadi
coach days831.0099.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.14
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.80-2.60
corners against avg (last 5)6.406.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.604.00
corners volatility (last 10)—2.01
elo1488.781479.02
elo momentum (last 5)-22.4513.88
eye test v10.25-0.22
eye trend v10.33-0.52
first sub minute (last 10)59.1758.20
form points (last 5)5.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.60
goals volatility (last 10)—0.70
league points8.009.00
league rank17.0015.00
matches since blank4.0010.00
matches since clean sheet2.002.00
matches since win2.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.2069.20
possession avg (last 5)48.8049.20
rest days12.905.88
scorer concentration0.300.45
season ppg1.331.29
skill v10.31-0.80
sot against avg (last 5)5.003.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.674.80
sot for avg (last 3)6.002.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.804.00
state index-0.30-0.08
sterile dominance v10.21-0.51
threat rate (last 10)0.230.27
threat rate (last 3)0.250.21
threat rate (last 5)0.230.26
venue ppg (last 5)—1.00