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Huesca 2–1 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid

← Segunda División 2017 · Sun, Oct 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Damaso Arcediano Monescillo, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Huesca win37%2.63
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win33%2.99
Draw30%3.22

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

17'⚽ (pen)Óscar Trejo · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid
45'⚽Juan Aguilera · Huesca
60'🟨Alexander González · Huesca
66'🟨Unai López · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid
79'⚽Cucho Hernández · Huesca
88'🟨Emiliano Velazquez · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid
90'🟨Santi Comesaña · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid
90'🟨Baiano · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
13Shots12
6On target4
4Corners7
12Fouls18
1Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHuescaRayo Vallecano de Madrid
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.250.24
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.330.12
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.270.22
box share (last 5)0.570.52
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days92.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEl Alcoraz
242.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)4.143.77
elo1496.421471.59
elo momentum (last 5)7.93-11.73
eye test v1-0.37-0.08
eye trend v10.40-0.40
first sub minute (last 10)61.6060.70
form points (last 5)8.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.40-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.941.17
keeper form v10.700.68
league points8.009.00
league rank14.0012.00
matches since blank2.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.001.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.6084.20
possession avg (last 5)49.0057.40
rest days7.177.00
scorer concentration0.670.33
season ppg1.331.50
skill v1-0.151.32
sot against avg (last 5)2.003.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.204.00
sot for avg (last 3)4.002.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.403.60
state index0.16-0.21
sterile dominance v1-0.260.61
threat rate (last 10)0.230.28
threat rate (last 3)0.240.27
threat rate (last 5)0.260.26
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.80