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Numancia 5–1 Albacete

← Segunda División 2017 · Sat, Sep 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Adrian Cordero Vega, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Numancia win54%1.81
Draw27%3.56
Albacete win19%5.19

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

32'🟨Mariano Bittolo · Albacete
45'🟨César de la Hoz · Albacete
45'⚽Manu Del Moral · Numancia
45'⚽Roman Zozulya · Albacete
48'🟨Esteban Saveljich · Albacete
53'⚽ (og)Mickael Gaffoor · Numancia
54'🟨Adrian Ripa · Numancia
65'🟨Nili · Albacete
76'⚽Pere Milla · Numancia
80'🟨Carlos Delgado · Albacete
82'⚽Dani Nieto · Numancia
84'⚽Higinio Marín · Numancia

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
15Shots10
7On target4
4Corners8
7Fouls15
1Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricNumanciaAlbacete
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.290.26
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.210.36
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.290.26
box share (last 5)0.780.58
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days852.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueLos Pajaritos
1674.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.63—
elo1441.881446.52
elo momentum (last 5)28.72-50.95
eye test v1-0.91-0.96
eye trend v1-0.550.57
first sub minute (last 10)61.1054.17
form points (last 5)8.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.60-1.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.06—
keeper form v10.83—
league points11.004.00
league rank5.0021.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet0.005.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)65.4072.60
possession avg (last 5)44.6047.60
rest days5.926.00
scorer concentration0.43—
season ppg1.830.67
skill v1-1.51-0.56
sot against avg (last 5)3.803.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.502.33
sot for avg (last 3)1.673.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.002.40
state index0.09-0.93
sterile dominance v1-0.71-0.12
threat rate (last 10)0.260.19
threat rate (last 3)0.160.21
threat rate (last 5)0.230.22
venue ppg (last 5)1.80—